o Tajka vision
o ForTajka o Equations
o Accounts o Trend
o Tutoral o History
The econometric TAJKA macromodel of
Finland is a second generation version of the AJKA model by Asko Korpela
for the years 1974-1996, originally created at the University of Pennsylvania.
The basic data for the model consists mainly of the renewed National Accounts
since 1975. The basic character of the model is Keynesian short run forecasting
and simulation. The model consists of two main sectors: the equilibrium
of aggregate demand and supply on one hand, and labour market, interconnected
by production and income formation, on the other.
PolTajka - anybody can use. PolTajka version of the model is based on a loss
function. With this version the User can steer the national economy to
the preset combined target values of four main goal variables. The loss
function consists of the squared differences of the given target values
and the calculated model values. The smaller the differences, the smaller
the value of the loss function and the closer to the given target values
the economoy approaches. If instruments are allowed to change freely, the
economy can be steered exactly to the given target values. Also a more
realistic variant can be chosen so that also instrument changes are included
in the loss function. In that case the zero-value of the loss function
cannot be reached, only approached. In any case the PolTajka version gives
a good touch on the interdependence of the instruments and targets of economic
policy. Inflation is best fought by negotiated wage rate, production advanced
or retarded by taxes. The idea of PolTajka is rather sophisticated, but
the use is very simple and does not require any basic knowledge of the
economy, because just changing an instrument either increases or decreases
the loss function value. The next move can be done accordingly.
ForTajka - only experts can succeed. ForTajka is the forecasting version of
the Tajka model. Forecasts are prepared for the current and the next year.
Expert knowledge and understanding are needed much more for the use of
this version than for PolTajka. The user must understand and assess the
rationality and probability of the forecast. The values of the target variables
and other variables are dependent of each other and instrument values through
the model. Forecasts deviate from each other depending on which economic
theory is used: So Tajka model is not only one model, but the user can
choose among several alternatives, for example, of consumption functions
or of export functions. The consumption can be set to depend only of income
or of current and previous income, and unemployment can be assumed to have
a separate effect. In this way, as a matter of fact, there are 5x4x3x2x2x3=720
different more or less similar models available for the user.
Equations - get acquainted with the economic theory.
On Equations tabsheet the equations of the
model are shown one by one, graphics of definitions and behavioural equations,
original time series, their logarithmic and percentage change variants,
partial elasticities in the case of linear functions and partial derivatives
at observation points in the case of logarithmic transformations. Graphics
is produced on clipboard and all numeric output into the TmpFi.txt file
simultaneously to the screen. On this tabsheet there is the possibility
to study all the details of the Tajka model.
Accounts - source of the basic
information. Tajka program outputs the relevant part of the National
Accounts as it is delivered by the Statistical Office continued by two
forecasting years. In addition to the basic alternative, any of the 720
combinations of the behavioural equations can be chosen. The forecasted
values change accordingly. The output can be taken in euros, percentage
changes or account structures.
Trend - time series in hand.
On this tabsheet all more than 90 variables
of Tajka model can be studied. The program calculates and draws a histogram
or a line graph and shows Tajka forecast as well as long run 25 year and
short run 10 year trends. Also a trend forecast, that is, two values continued
from the last observation in the direction of the short run trend. All
these values can be added and omitted at will by the user. There is still
the possibility for the user to put in his own trends with any starting
and ending points. The annual percentage changes are marked on the screen.
Every output is readily on clipboard.
Tutorial. Tajka program contains also a tabsheet, on which the use of other tabsheets
and basic features of Tajka model are instructed. On this tabsheet the
user can also make own courses. Some codes are available to invoke any
model equations and graphs.
History tabsheet presents the forecasting record for the years 1976-1996 of the
Ajka model, precedessor of the present model. Forecast success is compared
with that of the Ministry of Finance and Etla, The Research Institute of
the Finnish Economy.
model contains four central target variables: gross domestic product, unemployment,
inflation and current account. For the simulation of the economic policy
making there are some ten economic policy instruments: direct and indirect
taxes, negotiated wage rate, public consumption, public investments...
For calcualtion of policy alternatives also parametres of foreign
trade - import and export prices and a forecast of the world economy growth
- are available for the user. Also monetary policy instruments can be used,
although the model does not include a monetary sector. The structure and
the regression calculations output are readily available on a click on
the TajkaModel button. Also at any moment some basic concepts can be studied,
such as derivative, elasticities, trends, least squares regression. The
information about these concepts can also be reached
here (at present
in Finnish only).
o Tajka regression
o Tajka variables
o Tajka assumed values
Click here to download 2005 version TajkaSetup (3.6 MB).
Execute as system administrator.
Tell me, if you are interested in Delphi 10 code of Tajka.
Asko Korpela 20140421 (20050119)
o AJK homepage
20050404-7 o 20140506-63