AJKA An Econometric Model for Finland [ccc]
At the moment the best recommendation for the AJKA model is a table, where
you can see that the forecasts made by the AJKA model for 9 most important
macroeconomic indicators have been closer to the observations than the
forecasts made by the Ministry of Finance (VVM) and the Research Institute
for the Finnish Industry (ETLA). In the table the accuracy of the forecasts
made by the VVM, ETLA and AJKA model have been measured by giving one point
for the closest forecast and dividing the point, if several forecasts are
equally close.
|
77-86 |
1987 |
1988 |
1989 |
1990 |
1991 |
1992 |
1993 |
1994 |
1995 |
Sum |
| VVM |
36.3 |
6.3 |
2.7 |
4.3 |
4.8 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
4.5 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
74.0 |
| ETLA |
31.3 |
0.8 |
5.2 |
0.3 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
51.0 |
| AJKA |
22.3 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
4.3 |
1.3 |
3.0 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
5.0 |
4.0 |
46.0 |
POLAJKA program user tries to steer the economy to given target
values of important target variables.
-
four target variables: gross domestic product growth, inflation, rate of
unemployment and balance of current account.
-
ten economic policy instruments such as taxation, government consumption,
wage agreements etc. are used to steer the target variables towards the
given target values.
FORAJKA program user can make own forecasts on the basis of the
basic forecast
-
by changing the theory or one or several equations used in the model.
-
by changing one or several exogenous variables of the model: assumed values
such as growth rate of the world economy, parametres of the fiscal policy,
government consumption and wage rate.
Try the following...
-
BUDJ You can assume that the public expenditure remains one percent
lower than in the basic forecast
-
DEVA You can assume that a 20 per cent devaluation is undertaken.
This means that both the import prices and the export prices are increased
by 20 percent. Need of a devaluation can be assessed by making international
comparisons of GDP/inhabitant.
-
TUPO You can increase wages by two percent more than is done in
the basic forecast. Or you can speculate with 10 wage decrease. For these
changes there is the negotiated wage rate.
-
INVE You can examine, how much is the effect of an increase in investments
by one percent. Investments are exogenous in the model.
AJKA programs
Here you can download the application programs FORAJKA and POLAJKA of the
AJKA model.
o Save the program package in a temporary folder, e.g. \tmp.
o Doubleclick the self-extracting ..zz.exe filename.
o Doubleclick SetupFOR.bat or SetupPOL.bat filename.
The programs and data files are extracted to the folders \ajk\for
and \ajk\pol.
ForAJKA Forecasting with the AJKA
model (327Kb, 20000609)
PolAJKA Economic policy optimization
(349Kb, 20000609)
Additional information: Short introduction
o AJKA model o AJKA forecast
o Macroeconomics and Economy
of Finland
Asko Korpela 20010328 (19961014)
o AJK homepage
o Webmaster