Daniel Kahneman: Thinking - fast and slow

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6.HuomautuksetRemarksЗамечания
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Sisällysluettelo Contents Содержание (Code: (1,2,3,4,5))

10001 Introduction
4000101 Origins
10000102 Where We Are Now
13000103 What Comes Next
1701 Part 1 Two Systems
20010004 Two Systems
24010005 Plot Synopsis hd3:201308210321 Conflict
26010006 Illusions
28010007 Useful Fictions
30010008 Speaking of System 1 and System 2
300101 2 Attention and Effort
31010101 Mental Effort
38010102 Speaking of Attention and Effort
390102 3 The Lazy Controller I
41010201 The Busy and Depleted System 2
44010202 The Lazy System 2
47010203 Intelligence, Control, Rationality
49010204 Speaking of Control
500103 4 The Associative Machine To
52010301 The Marvels of Priming
55010302 Primes That Guide Us
58010303 Speaking of Priming
590104 5 Cognitive Ease Whenever
60010401 Illusions of Remembering
61010402 Illusions of Truth
62010403 How to Write a Persuasive Message
64010404 Strain and Effort
65010405 The Pleasure of Cognitive Ease
67010406 Ease, Mood, and Intuition
70010407 Speaking of Cognitive Ease
710105 6 Norms, Surprises, and Causes The
71010501 Assessing Normality
74010502 Seeing Causes and Intentions
78010503 Speaking of Norms and Causes
790106 7 A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions
79010601 Neglect of Ambiguity and Suppression of Doubt
80010602 A Bias to Believe and Confirm
82010603 Exaggerated Emotional Coherence (Halo Effect)
85010604 What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI)
88010605 Speaking of Jumping to Conclusions
890107 8 Howjudgments Happen There
90010701 Basic Assessments
93010702 Intensity Matching
95010703 The Mental Shotgun
96010704 Speaking of Judgment
970108 9 Answering an Easier Question A
97010801 Substituting Questions
100010802 The 3-D Heuristic
101010803 The Mood Heuristic for Happiness
103010804 The Affect Heuristic
105010805 Characteristics of System 1
10802 Part 2 Heuristics and Biases 10
1090201 10 The Law of Small Numbers
112020101 The Law of Small Numbers
113020102 A Bias of Confidence Over Doubt
118020103 Speaking of the Law of Small Numbers
1190202 11 Anchors Amos
120020201 Anchoring as Adjustment
122020202 Anchoring as Priming Effect
123020203 The Anchoring Index
126020204 Uses and Abuses of Anchors
127020205 Anchoring and the Two Systems
128020206 Speaking of Anchors
1290203 12 The Science of Availability
131020301 The Psychology of Availability Kopioitu leikepbydaile
145020302 Speaking of Availability Cascades
1460204 14 Tom Ws Specialty
151020401 The Sins of Representativeness
153020402 How to Discipline Intuition
160020403 Less Is More, Sometimes Even In Joint Evaluation Christopher
165020404 Speaking of Less is More
1660205 16 Causes Trump Statistics
1750206 17 Regression to the Mean I
176020601 Talent and Luck
186020602 Nonregressive Intuitions
189020603 A Correction for Intuitive Predictions
191020604 A Defense of Extreme Predictions?
194020605 A Two-Systems View of Regression
195020606 Speaking of Intuitive Predictions
19703 Part 3 Overconfidence 19
208030007 Speaking of Hindsight
2090301 20 The Illusion of Validity System to O n1 s of understanding are born. The d reliably from observations of success.
209030101 The Illusion of Validity
212030102 The Illusion of Stock-Picking Skill
216030103 What Supports the Illusions of Skill and Validity?
218030104 The Illusions of Pundits
221030105 Speaking of Illusory Skill
2220302 21 Intuitions vs. Formulas Paul
229030201 Learning from Meehl
232030202 Do It Yourself
233030203 Speaking of Judges vs. Formulas
2340303 22 Expert Intuition,h,When Can We Trust It? Professional
235030301 Marvels and Flaws
236030302 Intuition as Recognition
237030303 Acquiring Skill
239030304 The Environment of Skill
247030305 Drawn to the Inside View
254030306 Speaking of the Outside View
2550304 24 The Engine of Capitalism The
255030401 Optimists
256030402 Entrepreneurial Delusions
259030403 Competition Neglect
261030404 Overconfidence
265030405 Speaking of Optimism
26704 Part 4 Choices 25
2690401 25 Bernoulli's Errors One
272040101 Bernoulli's Error
2780402 26 Prospect Theory
283040201 Loss
286040202 Blind Spots of Prospect Theory
288040203 Speaking of Prospect Theory
2890403 27 The Endowment Effect You
297040301 Thinking Like a Trader
299040302 Speaking of the Endowment Effect
30005 28 Bad Events The
300050003 Negativity Dominance
302050004 Goals are Reference Points
304050005 Defending the Status Quo
305050006 Loss Aversion in the Law
309050007 Speaking of Losses
3100501 29 The Fourfold Pattern
310050101 Changing Chances
312050102 Alias's Paradox
316050103 The Fourfold Pattern
319050104 Gambling in the Shadow of the Law
321050105 Speaking of the Fourfold Pattern
3220502 30 Rare Events
323050201 Overestimation and Overweighting
326050202 Vivid Outcomes
328050203 Vivid Probabilities
333050204 Speaking of Rare Events
3340503 31 Risk Policies Imagine
335050301 Broad or Narrow?
336050302 Samuelson's Problem
340050303 Risk Policies
341050304 Speaking of Risk Policies
3420504 32 Keeping Score
342050401 Mental Accounts
346050402 Regret
352050403 Speaking of Keeping Score
3530505 33 Reversals You
354050501 Challenging Economics
356050502 Categories
360050503 Unjust Reversals
362050504 Speaking of Reversals
3630506 34 Frames and Reality Italy
364050601 Emotional Framing
368050602 Empty Intuitions
371050603 Good Frames
374050604 Speaking of Frames and Reality
37506 Part 5 Two Selves 35
3770601 35 Two Selves The
378060101 Experienced Utility
378060102 Experience and Memory
381060103 Which Self Should Count?
384060104 Biology vs. Rationality
385060105 Speaking of Two Selves
3860602 36 Life as a Story
388060201 Amnesic Vacations
390060202 Speaking of Life as a Story
3910603 37 Experienced Well-Being
392060301 Experienced Well-Being
397060302 Speaking of Experienced Well-Being
3980604 38 Thinking About Life Figure
402060401 The Focusing Illusion
406060402 Time and Time Again
407060403 Speaking of Thinking About Life
411060404 Econs and Humans
415060405 Two Systems
4190605 Appendix A,h,Judgment Under Uncertainty,h,Heuristics and Biases * Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman
419060501 hgl:201309260210
420060502 Representativeness
42006050201Insensitivity to prior probability of outcomes
42106050202Insensitivity to sample size.
42306050203Insensitivity to predictability.
42306050204The illusion of validity.
42406050205Misconceptions of regression.
425060503 Availability
42506050301Biases due to the retrievability of instances.
42506050302Biases due to the effectiveness of a search set.
42606050303Biases of imaginability.
42606050304Illusory correlation.
427060504 Adjustment and Anchoring
42706050401Insufficient adjustment.
42806050402Biases in the evaluation of conjunctive and disjunctive events.
42806050403Anchoring in the assessment of subjective probability distributions.
430060505 Discussion
4330606 052 Appendix B,h,Choices, Values, And Frames * Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky
433060601 hgl:201309260210
434060602 Discuss the cognitive and the psychophysical
436060603 Framing of Outcomes
438060604 Kopioitu leikepoydalle
441060605 Formulation Effects
441060606 Transactions and Trades
444060607 Losses and Costs
449060608 Introduction
450060609 1,h,The Characters of the Story
450060610 2,h,Attention and Effort
460060611 13,h,Availability, Emotion, and Risk
461060612 14,h,Tom Ws Specialty
461060613 15,h,Linda,h,Less is More
462060614 16,h,Causes Trump Statistics
462060615 17,h,Regression to the Mean
463060616 18,h,Taming Intuitive Predictions
463060617 19,h,The Illusion of Understanding
464060618 20,h,The Illusion of Validity
465060619 21,h,Intuitions vs. Formulas
465060620 22,h,Expert Intuition,h,When Can We Trust It?
466060621 23,h,The Outside View
4670607 24,h,The Engine of Capitalism
468060701 25,h,Bernoulli’s Errors
475060702 32,h,Keeping Score
476060703 33,h,Reversals
477060704 34,h,Frames and Reality
478060705 36,h,Life as a Story
478060706 37,h,Experienced Well-Being
479060707 38,h,Thinking About Life
479060708 38,h,Thinking About Life
480060709 Conclusions
Pagetop

Muistiinpanot Highlights Примечание (Code: h)

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201310130857@ Contents Introduction
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201308210721@ 1 The Characters of the Story To
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201309070831@ fig:Figure 1
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System 1 operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort and no sense of voluntary control. System 2 allocates attention to the effortful mental activities that demand it, including complex computations. The operations of System 2 are of...
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201309070831@ fig:Figure 2
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201309070831@ fig:Figure 3
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inverted V.
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Your use of electricity depends on what you choose to do, whether to light a room or toast a piece of bread. When you turn on a bulb or a toaster, it draws the energy it needs but no more.
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You will find that you have responded to the threat before you became fully conscious of it.
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System 2— from measuring pupils in a wide variety of tasks.
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As you become skilled in a task, its demand for energy diminishes. Studies
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Talent has similar effects. Highly intelligent individuals need less effort to solve the same problems, as indicated by both pupil size and brain activity.
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In the economy of action, effort is a cost, and the acquisition of skill is driven by the balance of benefits and costs.
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Effort is required to maintain simultaneously in memory several ideas that require separate actions, or that need to be combined according to a rule —rehearsing your shopping list as you enter the supermarket, choosing between the fish and the veal a...
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The most effortful forms of slow thinking are those that require you to think fast.
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We normally avoid mental overload by dividing our tasks into multiple easy steps, committing intermediate results to long-term memory or to paper rather than to an easily overloaded working memory. We cover long distances by taking our time and condu...
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You make many small decisions as you drive your car, absorb some information as you read the newspaper, and conduct routine exchanges of pleasantries with a spouse or a colleague, all with little effort and no strain. Just like a stroll.
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I did the best thinking of my life on leisurely walks with Amos.
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At the highest speed I can sustain on the hills, about 14 minutes for a mile, I do not even try to think of anything else.
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People who are cognitively busy are also more likely to make selfish choices, use sexist language, and make superficial judgments in social situations.
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tired and hungry judges tend to fall back on the easier default position of denying requests for parole. Both fatigue and hunger probably play a role.
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you think with your body, not only with your brain.
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201308210322@ hgi:ideomotor effect.
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201309070831@ fig:Figure 4
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201309070831@ fig:Figure 5. Causes and Consequences of Cognitive Ease
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Jumping to conclusions is efficient if the conclusions are likely to be correct and the costs of an occasional mistake acceptable, and if the jump saves much time and effort. Jumping to conclusions is risky when the situation is unfamiliar, the stake...
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201309070831@ fig:Kopioitu leikepoydalle Figure 6
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To derive the most useful information from multiple sources of evidence, you should always try to make these sources independent of each other.
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Eliminating redundancy from your sources of information is always a good idea.
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WYSIATI, which stands for what you see is all there is.
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WYSIATI— what you see is all there is.
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System 2 receives questions or generates them,h,in either case it directs attention and searches memory to find the answers. System 1 operates differently. It continuously monitors what is going on outside and inside the mind, and continuously generat...
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elections in Finland,
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201309070831@ fig:Figure 7 Sets and Prototypes
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201309070831@ fig:Figure 8
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201308210322@ I call this excess computation the mental shotgun.
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The normal state of your mind is that you have intuitive feelings and opinions about almost everything that comes your way. You like or dislike people long before you know much about them;
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We asked ourselves how people manage to make judgments of probability without knowing precisely what probability is.
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How to Solve It,h,'If
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The heuristic questions provide an off-the-shelf answer to each of the difficult target
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the dominant impression of 3-D size dictates the judgment of 2-D size. The illusion is due to a 3-D heuristic.
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You were not confused about the question, but you were influenced by the answer to a question that you were not asked,h,"How tall are the three people?"
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The results this time were completely different. In this sequence, the correlation between the number of dates and reported happiness was about as high as correlations between psychological measures can get.
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mistake was particularly embarrassing because I taught statistics and knew how to compute the sample size that would reduce the risk of failure to an acceptable level. But I had never chosen a sample size by computation . Like my colleagues, I had tr...
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201309070831@ The law of small numbers is a manifestation of a
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But they did not ignore it. The average estimates of those who saw 10 and 65 were 25% and 45%, respectively.
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anchoring effect.
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Two different mechanisms produce anchoring effects— one for each system. There is a form of anchoring that occurs in a deliberate process of adjustment, an operation of System 2. And there is anchoring that occurs by a priming effect, an automatic manifestation of System 1. Anchoring Kopioitu leikepoydalle
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People adjust less (stay closer to the anchor) when their mental resources are depleted, either because their meinory is loaded with digits or because they are slightly drunk. Insufficient adjustment is a failure of a weak or lazy System 2. i I
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In another elegant study in the same vein, participants were asked about the average price of German cars. A high anchor selectively primed the names of luxury brands (Mercedes, Audi), whereas the low anchor primed brands associated with mass-market...
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The anchoring effect is not a laboratory curiosity; it can be just as strong in the real world. In an experiment conducted some years ago.
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201309070831@ real-estate agents were given an opportunity to assess the value of a house that was actually on the market. They
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The conclusion is clear,h,anchors do not have their effects because people believe they are informative.
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The participants who have been exposed to random or absurd anchors (such as Gandhi's death at age 144) confidently
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The main moral of
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However, you should assume that any number that is on the table has had an anchoring effect on you, and if the stakes are high you should mobilize yourself (your System 2) to combat the effect.
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201309070831@ Speaking of Availability
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201309070831@ "Because of the coincidence of two planes crashing last month, she now prefers to take the train . That's silly. The risk hasn't really changed; it is an availability bias."
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20130902@ 13 Availability,
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20130902@ Availability, Emotion, and Risk Students
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201309070831@ Availability and Affect The
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201309070831@ The Public and the Experts
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The task of ranking the nine careers is complex and certainly requires the discipline and sequential organization of which only System 2 is capable.
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The similarity of an individual to the stereotype of a group is unaffected by the size of the group. Indeed, you could compare the description of Tom to an image of graduate students in library science even if there is no such department at the unive...
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201309070831@ anyone who ignores base rates and the quality of evidence in probability assessments will certainly make mistakes.
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One sin of representativeness is an excessive willingness to predict the occurrence of unlikely (low base-rate) events. Here is an example,h,you see a person reading The New York Times on the New York subway.
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wki:Thinking, Fast and Slow - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Kaanna tama sivuTo explain overconfidence, Kahneman introduces the concept he labels What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI). T... Page 153 - WYSIATI. In
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This influential modern approach to statistics is named after an English minister of the eighteenth century, the Reverend Thomas Bayes, who is credited with the first major contribution to a large problem,h,the logic of how people should change their mind in the light of evidence. Bayes's
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The set of feminist bank tellers is wholly included in the set of bank tellers, as every feminist bank teller is a bank teller. Therefore the probability that Linda is a feminist bank teller must be lower than the probability of her being a bank tell...
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we had pitted logic against representativeness, and representativeness had won!
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In the language of this book, we had observed a failure of System 2,h,our participants had a fair opportunity to detect the relevance of the logical rule,
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Which alternative is more probable? Linda is a bank teller. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
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The most representative outcomes combine with the personality description to produce the most coherent stories. The most coherent stories are not necessarily the most probable, but they are plausible, and the notions of coherence, plausibility, and p...
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@ Causal Stereotypes
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@ Causal Situations
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@ Can Psychology be Taught?
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@ Subjects' unwillingness to deduce the particular from the general was matched only by their willingness to infer the general from the particular.
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@ There is a deep gap between our thinking about statistics and our thinking about individual cases. Statistical results with a causal interpretation have a stronger effect on our thinking than noncausal information.
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201309100100@ Understanding Regression
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201309100100@ Whether undetected or wrongly explained, the phenomenon of regression is strange to the human mind. So strange, indeed, that it was first identified and understood two hundred years after the theory of gravitation and differential calculus.
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201309100100@ Regression effects can be found wherever we look, but we do not recognize them for what they are. They hide in plain sight.
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201309100100@ Speaking of Regression to Mediocrity
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20130909@ 18 Taming Intuitive Predictions Life
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grade point average
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201309100100@ (GPA)? People
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@ 19 The Illusion of Understanding
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201309100100@ Of course there was a great deal of skill in the Google story, but luck played a more important role in the actual event than it does in the telling of it. And the more luck was involved, the less there is to be learned.
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201309100100@ Some people thought well in advance that there would be a crisis, but they did not know it. They now say they knew it because the crisis did in fact happen.
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201309100100@ In common usage, the words intuition and premonition also are reserved for past thoughts that turned out to be true.
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@ The Social Costs of Hindsight
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The tendency to revise the history of one's beliefs in light of what actually happened produces a robust cognitive illusion.
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201309100100@ Recipes for Success
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it seems almost absurd to call a successful leader rigid and confused, or a struggling leader flexible and methodical.
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Because of the halo effect, we
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201309100100@ rigid, when the truth is that the CEO appears to be rigid because the firm is failing. This is how illusion
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201309100100@ regression to
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key question is whether the information about the firm is already incorporated in the price of its stock. Traders apparently lack the skill to answer this crucial question, but they appear to be ignorant of their ignorance.
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As Nassim Taleb pointed out in The Black Swan, our tendency to construct and believe coherent narratives of the past makes it difficult for us to accept the limits of our forecasting ability.
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The idea that large historical events are determined by luck is profoundly shocking, although it is demonstrably true.
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In other words, people who spend their time, and earn their living, studying a particular topic produce poorer predictions than dart-throwing evenly over the options. monkeys who would have distributed their choices
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Those who know more forecast very slightly better than those who know less. But those with the most knowledge are often less reliable. The reason is that the person who acquires more knowledge develops an enhanced illusion of her skill and
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It is Not the Experts' Fault— The World is Difficult
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The first lesson is that errors of prediction are inevitable because the world is unpredictable.
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Dawes showed that marital stability is well predicted by a formula,h,frequency of lovemaking minus frequency of quarrels
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Apgar jotted down five variables (heart rate, respiration, reflex, muscle tone, and color) and three scores (0, 1, or 2, depending on the robustness of each sign).
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The Hostility to Algorithms
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The problem is that the correct judgments involve short-term predictions in the context of the therapeutic interview, a skill in which therapists may have years of practice. The tasks at which they fail typically require long-term predictions about t...
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The sum of our six ratings predicted soldiers' performance much more accurately than the global evaluations of the previous interviewing method, although far from perfectly. We had progressed from "completely useless" to "moderately useful."
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provides the answer. Intuition is nothing more and nothing less than recognition."
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true experts know the limits of their knowledge.
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Expertise is not a single skill; it is a collection of skills.
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term anticipation and long-term forecasting are different tasks, and the therapist has had adequate Page 242 - hd3:opportunity to learn one but not the other.
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Evaluating Validity
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bogus,h,bo·gus adj. not genuine or true; fake,h,a bogus insurance claim. bo·gus·ly adv. bo·gus·ness n. late 18th cent. (originally U.S., denoting a machine for making counterfeit money),h,of unknown origin.
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23 The Outside View A
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20130912@ It is noteworthy, however, that we did not feel we needed information about other teams to make our guesses. My request for the outside view surprised all of us, including me! This is a common pattern,h,people who have information about an individual... hgl:
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20130912@ The Planning Fallacy
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20130912@ planning fallacy to describe plans and forecasts that are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases
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20130912@ Mitigating the Planning Fallacy
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20130912@ Decisions and Errors
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20130912@ Failing a Test
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The evidence suggests that optimism is widespread, stubborn, and costly.
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20130912@ CEO=Chief Executing Officer CEO are
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The upshot is that people tend to be overly optimistic about their
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Overconfidence is another manifestation of WYSIATI,h,when we estimate a quantity, we rely on information that comes to mind
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President Truman famously asked for a "one-armed
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20130912@ economist" who would take a clear stand; he was sick and tired of economists who kept saying, "On the other hand..." Organizations
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20130912@ The Premortem,h,A Partial Remedy
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The main virtue of the premortem is that it legitimizes doubts
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Bruno Frey barely recalls writing the piece, but I can still recite its first sentence,h,'The agent of economic theory is rational, selfish, and his tastes do not change."
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Unlike Econs, the Humans that psychologists know have a System 1. Their view
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Harry Markowitz, who would later earn the Nobel Prize for his work on finance, had proposed a theory in which utilities were attached to changes of wealth rather than to states of wealth.
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Problem 1,h,Which do you choose? Get $ 900 for sure OR 90% chance to get $ 1,000 Problem 2,h,Which do you choose?
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In Bernoulli's theory you need to know only the state of wealth to determine its utility, but in prospect theory you also need to know the reference state. Prospect theory is therefore more complex than utility theory.
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Put ice water into the left-hand bowl and warm water into the right-hand bowl. The water in the middle bowl should be at room temperature. Immerse your hands in the cold and warm water for about a minute, then dip both in the middle bowl. You will ex...
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201309180829@ fig:Figure 10
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For most people, the fear of losing $ 100 is more intense than the hope of gaining $ 150. We concluded from many such observations that "losses
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201309180829@ fig:Figure 11
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Each "indifference
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curve" connects the combinations of the two goods that are equally desirable— they The curves would turn into parallel straight lines if people were willing to "sell" vacation days for extra income at the same price regardless of how much income and how much vacation time they have. The convex shape indicates diminishing marginal u...
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All locations on an indifference curve are equally attractive. This is literally what indifference means,h,you don't care where you are on an indifference curve.
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Here again, the power and elegance of a theoretical model have blinded
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The omission of the reference point from the indifference map is a surprising case of theory-induced blindness, because we so often encounter cases in which the reference point obviously matters. In labor negotiations, it is well understood by both
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The Endowment Effect
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Other goods, such as wine and Super Bowl tickets, are held "for use," to be consumed or otherwise enjoyed. Your leisure time and the standard of living that your income supports are also not intended for sale or exchange. Knetsch,
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The results were dramatic,h,the average selling price was about double the average buying price, and the estimated number of trades was less than half of the number predicted by standard theory.
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People who are poor think like traders, but the dynamics are quite different. Unlike traders, the poor are not indifferent to the differences between gaining and giving up.
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'These negotiations are going nowhere because both sides find it difficult to make concessions, even w
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201309180829@ fig:Figure 12
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We all know that a friendship that may take years to develop can be ruined by a single action.
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strength of two motives,h,we are driven more strongly to avoid losses than to achieve gains.
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Animals, including people , fight harder to prevent losses than to achieve gains.
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201309180829@ Decision Weights
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201309180829@ ta,b,able 4
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201309180829@ fig:Figure 13
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The plaintiff with a strong case is likely to be risk averse.
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201309180829@ If the city litigates all 200 cases, it will lose 10, for a total loss of $ 10 million. If the city settles every case for $ 100,000, its total loss will be $ 20 million.
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"We never let our vacations hang on a last-minute deal. We're willing to pay a lot for certainty."
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"They know the risk of a gas explosion is minuscule, but they want it mitigated. It's a possibility effect, and they want peace of mind."
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201309180829@ Decisions from Global Impressions
162 (333)
"We shouldn't focus on a single scenario, or we will overestimate its probability. Lets set up specific alternatives and make the probabilities add up to 100%."
163 (344)
The disposition effect is an instance of narrow framing.
164 (345)
sunk-cost fallacy.
165 (349)
201309200826@ Responsibility
166 (351)
especially strong in Europe, where the precautionary principle, which prohibits any action that might cause harm, is a widely accepted doctrine.
167 (364)
people will more readily forgo a discount than pay a surcharge. The two may be economically equivalent, but they are not emotionally equivalent.
168 (20)
201309200826@ fig:Figure 14
169 (369)
Like other people, these professionals were susceptible to the framing effects. It is somewhat worrying that the officials who make decisions that affect everyone's health can be swayed by such a superficial manipulation— but we must get used to the ...
170 (369)
Saving lives with certainty is good, deaths are bad. Most people find that their System 2 has no moral intuitions of its own to answer the question.
171 (369)
Should the child exemption be larger for the rich than for the poor? Your own intuitions are very likely the same as those of Schelling's students,h,they found the idea of favoring the rich by a larger exemption completely unacceptable.
172 (373)
These enormous differences are a framing effect, which is caused by the format of the critical question. The high-donation countries have an opt out form, where individuals who wish not to donate must check an appropriate box. Unless they take this s...
173 (374)
As we have seen again and again, an important choice is controlled by an utterly inconsequential feature of the situation. This is embarrassing— it is not how we would wish to make important
174 (374)
201309200826@ Skeptics about rationality are not surprised . They are trained to be sensitive to the power of inconsequential factors as determinants of preference— my hope is that readers of this book have acquired this sensitivity.
175 (378)
My fascination with the possible discrepancies between experienced utility and decision utility goes back a long way.
176 (378)
Experienced utility would vary, much as daily temperature or barometric pressure do, and the re
177 (380)
201309260210@ fig:Figure 15
178 (384)
Decisions that do not produce the best possible experience and erroneous forecasts of future feelings— both are bad news for believers in the rationality of choice.
179 (385)
A memory that neglects duration will not serve our preference for long pleasure and short pains.
180 (385)
A divorce is like a symphony with a screeching sound at the end— the fact that it ended badly does not mean it was all bad."
181 (389)
the elimination of memories greatly reduces the
182 (391)
I was naturally suspicious of global satisfaction with life as a valid measure of well-being. As the remembering self had not proved to be a good witness in my experiments, I focused on the wellbeing of the experiencing self.
183 (393)
Although positive
184 (394)
201309260210@ temperament, or the misfortunes and personal tragedies in their life. A
185 (396)
201309260210@ Can money buy happiness? The conclusion is that being poor makes one miserable, and that being rich may enhance one's life satisfaction, but does not (on average) improve experienced well-being.
186 (398)
201309260210@ fig:Figure 16
187 (402)
Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it.
188 (404)
201309260210@ "How much pleasure do you get from your car when you think about it?"
189 (404)
If you have been there all your life and do not travel much, living in California is like having ten to
190 (408)
201309260210@ Two Selves Kopioitu leikepoydalie
191 (409)
The central fact of our existence is that time is the ultimate finite resource, but the remembering self ignores that reality.
192 (410)
For example, an hour spent practicing the violin may enhance the experience of many hours of playing or listening to music years later.
193 (410)
It is now conceivable , as it was not even a few years ago, that an index of the amount of suffering in society will someday be included in national statistics, along with measures of unemployment, physical disability, and income. This project has c...
194 (411)
The only test of rationality is not whether a person's beliefs and preferences are reasonable, but whether they are internally consistent.
195 (22)
201309260210@ An Econ would not be susceptible to priming, WYSIATI, narrow framing, the inside view, or preference reversals, which Humans cannot consistently avoid.
196 (411)
Rational people should be free, and they should be responsible for taking care of themselves. Milton Friedman, the leading figure in that school, expressed this view in the title of one of his popular books,h,Free to Choose.
197 (412)
Much is therefore at stake in the debate between the Chicago school and the behavioral economists, who reject the extreme form of the rational-agent model.
198 (412)
The decision of whether or not to protect individuals against their mistakes therefore presents a dilemma for behavioral economists. The economists of the Chicago school do not face that problem, because rational agents do not make mistakes. For adhe...
199 (415)
uneasy interaction between two fictitious characters,h,the automatic System 1 and the effortful System 2.
200 (416)
System
201 (416)
201309260210@ 1 is indeed the origin of much that we do wrong, but it is also the origin of most of what we do right— which is most of what we do. Our
202 (418)
201309260210@ the voices of present gossipers and future critics than to hear the hesitant voice of their own doubts. They will make better choices when they trust their critics to be sophisticated and fair, and when they expect their decision to be judged by how...
203 (419)
201309260210@ sometimes they lead to severe and systematic errors. The
204 (420)
Specifically, it can be shown by applying Bayes' rule that the ratio of these odds should be (. 7/. 3) 2, or 5.44, for each description
205 (422)
In contrast, sampling theory entails that the expected number of days on which more than 60% of the babies are boys is much greater in the small hospital than in the large one, because a large sample is less likely to stray from 50%. This fundamental...
206 (422)
201309260210@ valid hypothesis about a population will be represented by a statistically significant result in a sample with little regard for its size.
207 (424)
First, they do not expect regression in many contexts where it is bound to
208 (430)
The reliance on heuristics and the prevalence of biases are not
209 (430)
201309260210@ Statistical principles are not
210 (432)
201309251051@ s
211 (24)
201309260210@ The relation between decision values and experience values is discussed.
212 (24)
201309260210@ The preference for the sure gain is an instance of risk aversion.
213 (24)
201309260210@ fig:Figure 1. A Hypothetical Value Function
214 (438)
201309260210@ The Psychophysics of Chances
215 (445)
The owner of a store, for example, does not experience money paid to suppliers as losses and money received from customers as gains. Instead, the merchant adds costs and revenues over some period of time and only evaluates the balance.
216 (446)
201309260210@ Concluding Remarks
217 (446)
201309260210@ For example, the framing of outcomes of therapies for lung cancer in terms of mortality or survival is unlikely to affect experience, although it can have a pronounced influence on choice.
218 (447)
201309260210@ References
219 (448)
201309260210@ Also by Daniel Kahneman
220 (448)
201309252114@ Acknowledgments I
221 (449)
201309252116@ s Introduction
222 (452)
201309260210@ 3,h,The Lazy Controller
223 (453)
201309260210@ 4,h,The Associative Machine
224 (454)
201309260210@ 5,h,Cognitive Ease
225 (456)
201309260210@ 6,h,Norms, Surprises, and Causes
226 (456)
201309260210@ 7,h,A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions
227 (457)
201309260210@ 8,h,Howjudgments Happen
228 (457)
201309260210@ 9,h,Answering an Easier Question
229 (458)
201309260210@ 10,h,The Law of Small Numbers
230 (459)
201309260210@ 11,h,Anchors
231 (459)
201309260210@ 12,h,The Science of Availability
232 (469)
201309260210@ 26,h,Prospect Theory
233 (470)
201309260210@ 27,h,The Endowment Effect
234 (472)
201309260210@ 28,h,Bad Events
235 (473)
201309260210@ 29,h,The Fourfold Pattern
236 (474)
201309260210@ 30,h,Rare Events hd3:
237 (474)
201309260210@ 31,h,Risk Policies
238 (477)
201309260210@ 35,h,Two Selves
239 (478)
201309260210@ 37,h,Experienced Well-Being
240 (485)
201309260210@ Index The
241 (512)
201309260210@ 1984.
242 (512)
### en
243 (512)
Fast and Slow
244 (512)
Offered by Macmillan
245 (512)
$2.99, October 4, 2013
246 (512)
5.0 out of 5 stars
247 (512)
#eng My first psychology book
248 (512)
Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kindle Edition)
249 (512)
rev:201310050610
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Sanasto Vocabulary Словарь (Code: w)

1 Note gullibility (69)
2 WYSIATI (114)
3 botulism) (138)
4 chief executive officer (205)
5 CEO (205)
6 takautuminen (207)
7 pundits (218)
8 kouros (235)
9 throes,h,throes plural n (237)
intense or violent pain and struggle, esp. accompanying birth, death, or great change,h,he convulsed in his death throes. in the throes of in the middle of doing or dealing with something very difficult or painful,h,a friend was in the throes of a divorce. Middle English throwe (singular); perhaps related to Old English , thrawu 'calamity', influenced by 'suffer'.
10 Hubris,h,hu·bris n (260)
excessive pride or self-confidence. (in Greek tragedy) excessive pride toward or defiance of the gods, leading to nemesis. hu·bris·tic adj. Greek.
11 CFO Chief Financing Officer (261)
CFO
12 ostensibly (270)
13 endowment,h,en·dow·ment n (298)
the action of endowing something or someone,h,he tried to promote the endowment of a Chair of Psychiatry. - an income or form of property given or bequeathed to someone. - (usu. endowments) a quality or ability possessed or inherited by someone. - [usu. as adj.] a form of life insurance involving payment of a fixed sum to the insured person on a specified date, or to their estate should they die before this date,h,an endowment policy.
14 overarching,h,o·ver·arch·ing adj (306)
[attrib.] forming an arch over something,h,the overarching mangroves. comprehensive; all-embracing,h,a single overarching principle.
15 kirnuta? churning,h,o·ver·arch·ing adj (340)
[attrib.] forming an arch over something,h,the overarching mangroves. comprehensive; all-embracing,h,a single overarching principle.
16 blizzard,h,bliz·zard n (343)
a severe snowstorm with high winds and low visibility. FIGURATIVE an overabundance; a deluge,h,a blizzard of legal forms. early 19th cent. (originally U.S., denoting a violent blow),h,of unknown origin.
17 bliss,h,bliss n (381)
perfect happiness; great joy,h,she gave a sigh of bliss. See note at RAPTURE. - something providing such happiness,h,the steam room was bliss. - a state of spiritual blessedness, typically that reached after death. bliss out [often as adj.] (blissed out) INFORMAL reach a state of perfect happiness, typically so as to be oblivious of everything else,h,blissed-out hippies. Old English , bliss, of Germanic origin; related to BLITHE.
18 colostomy,h,co·los·to·my n (406)
(pl. -mies) a surgical operation in which a piece of the colon is diverted to an artificial opening in the abdominal wall so as to bypass a damaged part of the colon. an opening so formed,h,[as adj.] a colostomy bag. late 19th cent.,h,from COLON2 + Greek stoma 'mouth'.
19 obesity,h,o·bese adj (412)
grossly fat or overweight. o·be·si·ty n. mid 17th cent.,h,from Latin obesus 'having eaten until fat', from ob- 'away, completely' + esus (past participle of edere 'eat').
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Kirjanmerkit Bookmarks Закладка (Code: b)

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Yhteenvedot Reviews Резюме (Code: ###)

Daniel Kahneman: Thinking - fast and slow
1,9362,512,psy,eng,20130821,20130926,5,Daniel Kahneman: Thinking - fast and slow
20130821-20130926, 512 pages, 5* SalesInfo o eng


006 Thinking, Fast and Slow
Offered by Macmillan
Price,h,$2.99, October 4, 2013
5.0 out of 5 stars

eng My first psychology book

This review is from,h,Thinking, Fast and Slow (Kindle Edition)
rev:201310050610

With pleasure I return to this text in order to write a short summary in the spirit of the idea that it can be nicely joined as the last Note of the Kindle book and thus included in Notes, Highlights and Bookmarks file which follows every Kindle book and is any time available for the reader. Unfortunately only to be looked at, but not handled as a whole. This handicap can be overcome easily by screen shots. So, why does not Amazon allow it to be directly downloaded for the benefit of the reader for easier use as source material anywhere.

But returning to this stunning book I am in lack of sufficient overwords. I do not remember that I would ever have read any psychology book before. So I have read it as a complete layman, but had no difficulty at all understanding every passage of it. As a matter of fact the book is not only psychology, but a lucid presentation of the methods of psychology, common to all behavioral sciences, so to me as economist, too. This book has no side walks, but is the story of thinking, fast and slow, just as the cover tells. These two concepts I meet first time ever, but they are clearly defined so that even a layman dares to paraphrase them as effortless thinking and thinking with effort. Kahneman is a nobelist in just economics and well deserves it. Good thinking is also a matter of economics. That is compöetely clear. Another brilliant concept, which I meet first time here in this book, although it belongs outright to the central concepts of economics as well,h,WYSIATI - What You See Is All There Is. Do not smile, it is a serious term, not at all expressing something superficial, but is a profound characterization of human behavior.

Kahnemans presentation is completely based on experience and well organized simple experiments of how we think and decide things. And he does not at all hoist his own profile, but continuously refers to colleagues, quite especially beautifully to his defunt partner with words 'Amos and I'. You get the impression that if Amos Tversky had lived, he would have stepped side by side with the author to the podium of honor in Stockholm.

So there is no doubt of five stars for one of the best nonfiction books I ever have read. Already after having read a few pages I ordered a copy for my daughter, a professional psychologist. With keen interes I wait her comments.

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Huomautukset Remarks Замечания (Code: @@@)


No Remarks Pagetop

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